Friday, April 25, 2008

Some perspective from an expert in the region

Mail from a friend in Egypt:

I think Jennifer gave you a good overview on the critical elements of development and conflict. .Whether in Sudan or Chad, the most pressing problems are: climate change, shortage of water, excessive population growth (compared to water and food capacity in the area), war and poverty. Sudan and Chad have some geopolitical and economic similarities. I think we need to have more research in this area. I encourage you to pursue your research project.

Chad has a very weak economy based on cotton and more recently oil. Most of the new industries are supporting cast to the oil sector. Corruption is very high at all levels. Ministers sell the government vehicles or offer them as gifts to their clan members. Last month, in the mist of the conflict with Sudan, most of the Chadian government's vehicles disappeared and the government has no system to track them either. You will find government's officials that cannot read or write, but are excellent fighters. Though they are brutal in protecting their interest, emotionally underdeveloped and can engage in open-ended warfare. However, Sudan is a mirror image of Chad. The governing elites in Sudan are well educated and savvy with their opponents.

To their credit, in Sudan, there is tremendous growth in the real estate, telecom, oil sector and military industrial complex. Perhaps most importantly, these sectors have grown at the expense of the agricultural sector. In addition, the conflict in Darfur has ruined the animal product sector. Sudan now is importing food and most of it's basic needs from world markets. Overall there is sluggish growth, poverty and economic inequality. The country is lagging on all the measures of economic development. In the south there is a ceasefire but no peace, still there is a tit-for-tat between the leaders of the governing coalition. The picture is grim but there is hope and we are all betting on peace.

Certainly, feel free to communicate with me and hopefully we will meet in Cairo in July.

Best regards

Hamid

Saturday, April 12, 2008

Letter to gain entry to Sudan

I drafted the following letter to attempt getting a Visa into Sudan. Hard to say if they will accept the idea. Thankfully I have a few friends in Sudan to serve as references.

--- Begin letter ---

To the honorable Ambassador from Sudan,


I am an MBA student at UNC's Kenan-Flagler school of business. This summer I will work on an economic analysis of the potential business benefits peace offers the region. I recognize that the media attention is focused on the Sudanese side of the war with Chad. The focus of this paper is the benefits of peace while avoiding the highly controversial issue of who is to blame. This study focuses in two areas:

  • The potential reduction in the cost of oil extraction if a regionally brokered peace is established.
  • The positive GDP affects of peace on the region.

While in Sudan I plan to stay in Khartoum and interview business leaders on how a resolution to the conflict would benefit their ventures.

The desired outcome of this effort is an understanding among regional leadership of the benefits provided by an end to the war. My faculty adviser is a development Economist trained at Stanford University.


At your discretion please approve a Visa for the dates July 22cnd to August 6th so I can complete interviews.


With appreciation,

-JYE

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Direction

So this blog is about the journey to find some business benefits for peace between Chad and Sudan. Essentially adding more dimension to the question "What value comes from finding peace?"

In my opinion, after researching for a few months, the geo-politics muddy this issue. Chad sells a lot of oil to the western powers in exchange for bullets, and Sudan does the same with China. The western media focuses on Sudan, but we could benefit from some broader thinking on the issue.

I wish everyone a peaceful journey,

-JYE