Friday, April 25, 2008

Some perspective from an expert in the region

Mail from a friend in Egypt:

I think Jennifer gave you a good overview on the critical elements of development and conflict. .Whether in Sudan or Chad, the most pressing problems are: climate change, shortage of water, excessive population growth (compared to water and food capacity in the area), war and poverty. Sudan and Chad have some geopolitical and economic similarities. I think we need to have more research in this area. I encourage you to pursue your research project.

Chad has a very weak economy based on cotton and more recently oil. Most of the new industries are supporting cast to the oil sector. Corruption is very high at all levels. Ministers sell the government vehicles or offer them as gifts to their clan members. Last month, in the mist of the conflict with Sudan, most of the Chadian government's vehicles disappeared and the government has no system to track them either. You will find government's officials that cannot read or write, but are excellent fighters. Though they are brutal in protecting their interest, emotionally underdeveloped and can engage in open-ended warfare. However, Sudan is a mirror image of Chad. The governing elites in Sudan are well educated and savvy with their opponents.

To their credit, in Sudan, there is tremendous growth in the real estate, telecom, oil sector and military industrial complex. Perhaps most importantly, these sectors have grown at the expense of the agricultural sector. In addition, the conflict in Darfur has ruined the animal product sector. Sudan now is importing food and most of it's basic needs from world markets. Overall there is sluggish growth, poverty and economic inequality. The country is lagging on all the measures of economic development. In the south there is a ceasefire but no peace, still there is a tit-for-tat between the leaders of the governing coalition. The picture is grim but there is hope and we are all betting on peace.

Certainly, feel free to communicate with me and hopefully we will meet in Cairo in July.

Best regards

Hamid

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